Polish Dispatch Model

How the model optimises battery dispatch across Polish markets

Getting Started

The Polish dispatch model builds on the core dispatch model framework. For an overview of the dispatch model architecture and optimisation approach, see the Core Dispatch Model documentation.

For an overview of the available revenue streams and market structures specific to Poland, see the Revenue Stack page.

Simulated revenues rather than measured

The Poland benchmark simulates the dispatch of a representative battery against public market data. Poland has no asset-level disclosure regime for utility-scale storage: PSE publishes system-wide balancing prices and volumes, but not the schedules or settlement of individual batteries. Revenues are therefore modelled, not reconstructed from metered operations.

The representative asset is a 50 MW standalone battery, modelled at both 2-hour and 4-hour durations. Co-located solar and standalone solar are supported in this release.

Three-step Optimisation

TGE runs scheduled intraday auctions, but they are not a modelled step. The model solves in three sequential steps:

Day-ahead step – co-optimises day-ahead energy, FCR capacity, aFRR capacity, and mFRR capacity with foresight across the delivery day. Commitments are fixed at the end of this step. The model always solves at 15-minute resolution. Until 30 September 2025 the TGE day-ahead product is hourly, so megawatts are held constant across the four quarters of each hour. From 1 October 2025 the product is 15-minute, so each quarter can take a different volume.
Intraday step – from 14 June 2024, repositions the day-ahead book on TGE 15-minute continuous, in a rolling two-hour window with imperfect price foresight. Dispatch in each slot is capped by modelled market depth.
aFRR energy step – from the PICASSO go-live date, dispatches activated aFRR energy in a rolling real-time window, honouring the earlier commitments.

Day-ahead commitments are set before the intraday step runs. Intraday commitments are set before the aFRR energy step runs.

The day-ahead step always solves at 15 minutes

Poland’s day-ahead market cleared in hourly products until 30 September 2025 and in 15-minute products from 1 October 2025. The model follows that product on a 15-minute timestep. In the hourly period, the same megawatts are held for all four quarters of the hour. From 1 October 2025 each quarter is free to differ.

TGE 15-minute continuous is depth-capped

Poland has an active 15-minute continuous market on TGE. This release includes it. A battery cannot take more than its capture share of the traded volume in each slot.

Backtest prices and volumes come from TGE. Forecast prices come from the Europe production-cost model’s Polish intraday series, retuned against TGE continuous prints for October 2025 to August 2026. Depth is anchored at 28.5 MW, measured in 2026, and held flat until 2027 so no growth is credited before the first forecast year. Depth then grows as more wind and solar from independent power producers connects, as PSE tightens how those plants balance their positions, and as batteries add counterparties. Slots with no trade take the day-ahead price and a zero ceiling.

TGE also runs scheduled auctions. Those auctions exist and are active, but are not modelled in this release.

Reserve capability is limited by the battery’s operating point

Poland applies a distinctive rule to how much reserve a battery can offer. Reserve capability is assessed from the battery’s current scheduled output - its operating setpoint - not from how much energy is in the pack. This is a regulatory artefact of a framework originally designed for conventional and hydro plants, and it is restrictive for batteries.

A battery sitting at half charge is not free to offer full reserve in both directions simply because it has energy and headroom available. The market asks where the unit is running right now, not how much energy it is holding. For a unit at a given operating point:

Upward reserve is limited by the room to increase discharge or reduce charging.
Downward reserve is limited by the room to increase charging or reduce discharge.
The two directions cannot both be offered at full band, because they share the same inverter rating measured against the operating point.
A battery sitting idle at zero output must choose a direction; it cannot hold reserve in both directions while doing nothing.

The table below shows how this works for a 20 MW battery:

Current setpoint	Upward reserve offerable	Downward reserve offerable
Discharging 5 MW	15 MW	5 MW
Charging 5 MW	5 MW	15 MW
Idle (0 MW)	Must pick one direction	Must pick one direction

This matters because a model that only checked energy headroom would let a battery stack full upward and full downward reserve from a mid-charge position, materially overstating Polish reserve revenue. Tying the offer to the operating point prevents this. Within that limit, upward and downward reserve remain separate products, each priced independently.

Direction switching requires one idle settlement period between scheduled reversals

Poland’s balancing rulebook, the Warunki Dotyczące Bilansowania (WDB), qualifies a storage scheduling unit separately in the generation direction and the consumption direction. Two rules govern how quickly a battery can reverse between them.

One direction per settlement period: a storage unit cannot operate in both the generation and consumption directions within a single balancing settlement period (OREB), which is 15 minutes. The model enforces this: charging and discharging are mutually exclusive in every modelled interval.
Minimum standstill: reversing scheduled energy is a shutdown then a restart. The WDB minimum standstill is one OREB of idle between opposite scheduled-energy directions. The model enforces that pause on the 15-minute steps. The hourly day-ahead step cannot express a 15-minute pause, so the constraint is inactive there. Holding an aFRR or FCR band around a flat setpoint is not treated as a direction change.

JGM2 units declare no standstill. The representative asset is modelled as JGM1.

Central dispatch and balancing

Poland operates a central dispatch model. PSE runs an integrated scheduling process that decides when units charge and discharge, selecting battery offers in merit order. Since June 2024, imbalances settle at a single price per settlement period, regardless of direction. Passive imbalance income is not monetised in this release.

FCR modelling

Asymmetric and capacity-only – upward and downward FCR are independent products, each paid its own clearing price. No energy payment is attached to FCR, and no derating is applied to the offered volume.
Hourly procurement – capacity is contracted in hourly blocks rather than the four-hour blocks used in Germany.
Limited-energy rule – the battery keeps a short buffer of stored energy in each direction so it can sustain its committed response.

aFRR modelling

Capacity – priced at the marginal clearing price published by PSE, with upward and downward volumes offered independently.
Energy activation – from the PICASSO go-live date, activated aFRR energy flows through the battery’s normal charge and discharge, so both revenue and the effect on state of charge are captured directly. Activation in each period is capped at the typical historical call rate multiplied by the aFRR capacity sold in that direction, not by nameplate. A period with no aFRR commitment earns no aFRR energy.

mFRR modelling

PSE has procured mFRR capacity since the 14 June 2024 balancing reform, and batteries can participate. This release includes the capacity payment. The product is co-optimised on the 15-minute day-ahead step, so it enters the solve from 1 October 2025.

Asymmetric hourly product – upward and downward volumes are offered independently, priced at the PSE pay-as-clear capacity price.
Two-hour energy hold – a unit holding mFRR up must keep enough stored energy to deliver its day’s maximum accepted megawatts for two hours.
No energy leg – activated mFRR energy is not modelled, because PSE does not publish a dedicated activation series.
Forecast saturation – forecast acceptance follows the same battery-fleet fill signal as aFRR, so mFRR capacity revenue declines as the modelled fleet grows.

Forecast reserve saturation

In the forecast, reserve revenues decline as the modelled battery fleet grows and competition for reserve increases. Capacity payments for FCR, aFRR, and mFRR saturate over the forecast horizon in line with the projected buildout. The aFRR energy activation cap is scaled by the same saturation signal, so activated-energy revenue falls in step with the capacity markets rather than staying frozen at historical levels. This keeps the reserve stack internally consistent and prevents activated energy from becoming an implausibly large share of revenue in later years.

The scenario adjustments, including the Polish forecast calibration factors, are on the Scenarios page. Day-ahead granularity, continuous-market depth, reserve capability, standstill, and reserve saturation are the same in Central, Low, and High.

Simplifications in the Polish model

Day-ahead and reserve prices known on the day-ahead step: the model co-optimises energy and reserve with foresight across the delivery day.
Intraday auctions not modelled: TGE runs scheduled auctions; only 15-minute continuous trading is in the stack.
mFRR energy not modelled: PSE publishes no dedicated activation series.
aFRR energy capped at a typical call rate: activation cannot exceed the aFRR capacity sold in that direction, scaled by the historical call rate. A period with no aFRR commitment earns none.
Standstill inactive on the hourly day-ahead step: the 15-minute pause cannot be expressed there.

Revenue Stack – Revenue streams available to battery storage in Poland
Core Dispatch Model – Global dispatch model architecture and methodology
Battery Dispatch – Battery inputs, constraints and optimisation windows
Scenarios – Assumptions behind the Central, Low and High scenarios

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