Modelling Hub
We believe that users and end-consumers of our models should be empowered to understand how they really work. This documentation hub aims to provide full transparency on the workings of our models, their inputs, and the assumptions made in their ongoing development.
How to Use Our Forecast DocumentationThis documentation is structured to help you understand both the general methodology and market-specific features:
- Start with the core models — Read the Capacity Expansion Model, Production Cost Model, and Dispatch Model sections below to understand how our modelling works at a fundamental level.
- Then explore your market — Browse the regions below to find the market you're interested in for additional features, modelling approaches, and data sources specific to that region.
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Our Core Models
Capacity Expansion Model
An optimisation model that forecasts which generators will be built over the forecast horizon
The capacity expansion model estimates future investment decisions by minimising total system cost subject to demand, reliability, and policy constraints.
Technologies compete economically based on capital costs, operational costs, resource quality, and the revenues they generate from energy and ancillary service markets.
Production Cost Model
A mathematical representation of a physical power system
The production cost model, often referred to as our fundamentals model, is a mathematical representation of a physical electricity system.
This is the foundation of all of our regional models, enabling us to take inputs like system Demand, the marginal costs of generators and storage technologies, and to produce a view of the future system.
Dispatch Model
A linear optimisation model used to represent a physical asset dispatching into electricity markets
The dispatch model is designed to accurately represent physical assets being commercialised in electricity markets.
This model takes several price series, and with constraints based on the physical world, e.g. size (MW), energy yield or cycling limits, optimises revenues.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are documentation versions structured?
Each documentation version corresponds to a specific release of the forecast models. The version selector in the sidebar allows switching between versions to see how the methodology has evolved over time.
How do I access documentation for older model versions?
Documentation for model versions prior to October 2025 can be accessed at the following legacy sites:
What is the difference between the core models and the regional sections?
The core models (Capacity Expansion, Production Cost, and Dispatch) describe the general methodology that underpins all market forecasts. The regional sections cover market-specific features, data sources, and modelling approaches unique to each electricity market.
How often is the documentation updated?
Documentation is updated alongside each new model version release every 3 months (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct). Each version captures the methodology and assumptions in effect at the time of that release.