The forecast includes central, low, and high scenarios to address different risk appetites and market outlooks. All three scenarios are available in every European region.
At a glance:
- Central case: Base assumptions representing the most likely market outcome
- Low case: Downside view with lower gas and carbon prices, slower demand growth, and more conservative battery dispatch
- High case: Upside view with higher gas and carbon prices, faster demand growth, and stronger battery dispatch
- All scenarios: The same generation and battery buildout, from one capacity expansion model run
Scenario availability
Central, Low and High scenarios are available for Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain.
How the scenarios are built
The Low and High scenarios use different views on possible future gas and carbon prices, as well as demand growth across Europe. This reflects some of the underlying uncertainty in the market that could ultimately lead to lower or higher revenues for an asset. Each region then also has further changes specific to battery storage which are detailed below.
Central Case
The central scenario is our most realistic market outlook. It uses base assumptions for commodity prices, demand, buildout and battery dispatch.
For details on the underlying methodology, see:
- Fundamentals Model for power price assumptions
- Modelling Assumptions for CAPEX and buildout
Low Case
The low scenario is a downside case where market conditions are less favourable for battery storage.
- Lower commodity prices: Lower gas and carbon prices decrease wholesale power prices and compress day-ahead spreads.
- Slower demand growth: Lower demand decreases wholesale prices, especially in the middle of the day.
- More conservative BESS dispatch: Each region applies its own downside adjustment.
High Case
The high scenario is an upside case where market dynamics favour battery storage.
- Higher commodity prices: Higher gas and carbon prices increase wholesale power prices and widen day-ahead spreads.
- Faster demand growth: Higher demand increases wholesale prices at all times of day.
- Stronger BESS dispatch: Each region applies its own upside adjustment.
Dispatch model adjustments by region
The commodity and demand changes apply in every region. The table below shows the additional BESS dispatch model adjustments in each region. These changes reflect further uncertainty in battery optimisation and ancillary service markets that specifically affect battery storage.
| Region | Low | Central | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Great Britain | 77% calibration factor; higher BM competition | 82% calibration factor; base BM competition | 87% calibration factor; lower BM competition |
| Germany | €25/MWh cost on non-physical traded volume | No adjustment | 20% of each new battery can participate in ancillary markets |
| Italy | 80% of day-ahead revenues | 85% of day-ahead revenues | 90% of day-ahead revenues |
| Poland | 80% calibration factor | 90% calibration factor | 100% calibration factor |
| Spain | Balancing energy prices about 10–20% lower | No adjustment | Balancing energy prices about 10–20% higher |
- Great Britain: The calibration factor applies to wholesale, Balancing Mechanism and frequency response revenues. It does not apply to Capacity Market or TNUoS revenues. The BM competition level sets how much capacity competes with the battery for Balancing Mechanism actions. See Model Calibration.
- Germany: In the Low case, the model adds a €25/MWh cost to non-physical traded volume. Non-physical volume is energy that the battery buys in one market and sells in another without charging or discharging. The cost reduces cross-market trading. In the High case, only 20% of each new battery can participate in ancillary markets, against 50% in Central. Ancillary prices saturate more slowly as a result.
- Italy: The factor applies to day-ahead revenues only. MB and aFRR revenues are not scaled, because the model already anchors them to observed activations and prices.
- Poland: The calibration factor applies to all modelled battery revenues.
- Spain: Spanish balancing energy prices (aFRR energy and TTRR P2) are forecast from day-ahead prices, so they move with each scenario. They are about 10–20% lower in the Low case and 10–20% higher in the High case. aFRR capacity prices change very little.
When to use each scenario
- Central case: Best estimate for investment decisions and base case financial modelling
- Low case: Stress testing and downside risk assessment
- High case: Upside potential and optimistic business case assumptions
For questions about scenario selection, see the FAQs.