GB-specific considerations for standalone solar revenue forecasting.
For general solar model documentation (generation modelling, cannibalisation, capture metrics), see the Standalone Solar Model.
Overview
Our bankable GB Power Price forecasts underpin our standalone Solar Revenue Forecast. This page covers GB-specific revenue mechanisms and contract structures.
Example revenue stack for a GB standalone solar project
GB Revenue Streams
Wholesale Revenue
Revenue from selling solar generation to the GB wholesale market at the captured day-ahead price.
Contract for Difference (CfD)
CfD contracts are the primary support mechanism for new renewable generation in GB:
- Strike price: The guaranteed price per MWh (set at auction)
- Reference price: The GB day-ahead market price
- Difference payment: Strike price minus reference price (when positive)
- Allocation rounds: CfD contracts are awarded through competitive auctions (AR1, AR2, AR3, etc.)
How GB CfD difference payments work
REGOs (Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin)
Additional revenue from selling REGO certificates:
- Certify that electricity was generated from renewable sources
- Traded separately from the underlying electricity
- Value varies with corporate PPA demand and voluntary market conditions
CfD Negative Pricing Rules
For CfD-contracted assets in GB, special rules apply during negative price periods:
- Under current CfD rules, generators do not receive difference payments during settlement periods with negative prices
- The duration threshold varies by CfD allocation round:
- Earlier rounds: 6 consecutive hours of negative prices
- Later rounds (AR4+): From the first negative price settlement period
The model accurately captures this by:
- Identifying negative price periods in the GB price forecast
- Applying the correct rule based on CfD allocation round
- Excluding eligible periods from CfD revenue calculations
- Reporting the impact as “negative pricing losses”
This ensures CfD revenue forecasts reflect the true risk profile of the contract.
GB-Specific Loss Analysis
The model reports losses specific to GB market conditions:
- CfD negative pricing losses: Revenue foregone due to negative price rules (see above)
- Merchant negative pricing exposure: For non-CfD assets exposed to negative wholesale prices