The forecast includes central, low, and high scenarios to address different risk appetites and market outlooks.
At a glance:
- Central case: Base assumptions representing the most likely market outcome
- Low case: Conservative view with lower gas prices, higher battery buildout, and reduced dispatch performance
- High case: Optimistic view with increased dispatch opportunities and stronger asset performance
Central Case
The central scenario represents the most realistic market outlook, using base assumptions for commodity prices, generation buildout, and battery dispatch performance.
| Category | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Gas prices | Forward curve + long-term forecasts |
| Battery buildout | Base case from Capacity Expansion Model |
| BM dispatch | Standard competition levels |
| Calibration | 80% of modelled revenues (75th percentile benchmark) |
For details on the underlying methodology, see:
- Fundamentals Model for power price assumptions
- Modelling Assumptions for CAPEX and buildout
- Model Calibration for how revenues are adjusted
Low Case
The low scenario assumes more conservative fundamentals and battery dispatch performance. This represents a downside case where market conditions are less favourable for battery storage.
Key assumptions
| Category | Adjustment from Central |
|---|---|
| Gas prices | 10% lower |
| Battery buildout | 10% higher |
| BM dispatch | Reduced (more volume competing for actions) |
| Calibration | 75% of modelled revenues |
What drives lower revenues
-
Lower commodity prices: A 10% reduction in gas prices flows through to lower wholesale power prices and compressed day-ahead spreads.
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Higher battery buildout: With 10% more battery capacity entering the market, competition intensifies across all revenue streams. More batteries chase the same spreads, reducing revenues per asset.
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Increased BM competition: Higher battery volumes competing for Balancing Mechanism actions means each asset wins a smaller share of dispatch opportunities.
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Conservative calibration: The 75% calibration factor assumes the asset performs below the fleet average, capturing scenarios where trading execution or asset availability underperforms expectations.
High Case
The high scenario assumes more optimistic battery dispatch conditions. This represents an upside case where market dynamics favour battery storage.
Key assumptions
| Category | Adjustment from Central |
|---|---|
| BM dispatch | Increased (less volume competing for actions) |
| Calibration | 85% of modelled revenues |
What drives higher revenues
-
Reduced BM competition: With fewer batteries competing for Balancing Mechanism volumes, each asset captures a larger share of dispatch opportunities and associated revenues.
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Optimistic calibration: The 85% calibration factor assumes the asset performs above the fleet average, representing scenarios with excellent trading execution and high availability.
Scenario comparison
The table below summarises how each scenario affects the key model inputs:
| Input | Low | Central | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas prices | -10% | Base | Base |
| Battery buildout | +10% | Base | Base |
| BM competition | Higher | Base | Lower |
| Calibration factor | 75% | 80% | 85% |
When to use each scenario
- Central case: Best estimate for investment decisions and base case financial modelling
- Low case: Stress testing and downside risk assessment
- High case: Upside potential and optimistic business case assumptions
For questions about scenario selection, see the FAQs.