Fuel and carbon price assumptions from reputable third-party sources
Commodity prices are essential inputs for determining start costs and short-run marginal costs for thermal generators. The model includes fuel prices (gas, coal, biomass, hydrogen) and carbon credits.
Data sources by commodity
| Commodity | Backtest source | Forecast source |
|---|---|---|
| Gas | Daily historical prices | CME futures (short-term), Oxford Economics and Deloitte |
| Carbon | Daily historical EU ETS price | IEA Announced Pledges Scenario projections |
| Hydrogen | European Hydrogen Observatory, ICCT | Modo Energy hydrogen model |
| Coal | Daily historical prices | FES 2025 report (API2 CIF ARA benchmark) |
| Biomass | Daily historical prices | Annual price projections |
Gas price forecasts
The chart below is interactive—hover over data points to see exact values.