Demand

Our demand modelling framework for the NEM captures both established consumption patterns and the growing influence of distributed energy resources (DERs).

Data Sources and Forecasting Method

For backtesting, the model uses historical operational demand data sourced from AEMO. For forecasting, demand profiles from a representative median weather year are applied, scaled to align with annual consumption projections from AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO). This approach preserves realistic temporal variability while anchoring forecasts in long-term energy trends.

Operational vs. Underlying Demand

To reflect the impact of DERs on grid behaviour, we distinguish between two key types of demand:

• Operational Demand: Electricity demand to be supplied directly by the supply stack.
• Underlying Demand: Total electricity demand, including generation from behind-the-meter resources.

This disaggregation enables the model to isolate the influence of growth of technologies such as rooftop solar and behind-the-meter storage on operational demand, and therefore forecast future demand more accurately.

Modelling Consumer Energy Resources (CER)

We also account for other consumer-side technologies that reduce operational demand, including:

• Rooftop PV
• Behind-the-Meter Battery Storage

Below is an example of how demand is modelled across a single day in 2035:

1. We start with operational demand from our weather year.
2. We add on rooftop PV generation from our weather year to get underlying demand.
3. We scale underlying demand based on our TWh demand projections (based on the ISP, Step change for most demand types, Slower Growth for Hydrogen demand, Data Centre Sensitivity for Data Centre demand).
4. We add in EV Charging demand separately, based on AEMO’s assumed charging profile.
5. We model and add in CER generation (rooftop solar and passive CER storage) to get our modelled operational demand.
6. If we also subtract unconstrained renewable generation, here we can see an example residual demand profile.

Use the step buttons on the chart below to walk through each stage of the demand modelling process.

Ongoing forecasted demand

The shape of operational demand will change over time with the buildout of more renewable capacity, particularly solar. As we move into the later years in the forecast horizon, we expect demand to be lower in the middle of the day relative to higher and higher morning and evening peaks, and that the “duck curve” will therefore become more pronounced over time.