The Modo Energy NEM forecast of power prices and battery revenues updates periodically. Here is a summary of the changes from one version to the next.
February 2026 release (update from November 2025)
Market pricing model updates
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Minimum synchronous generation: The model now enforces minimum synchronous generation requirements per NEM state to maintain system security. Thresholds decline over time as synchronous condensers and grid-forming inverters are deployed. See Generation and Storage.
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PPA bidding tiers: Renewable capacity is now partitioned into three distinct PPA bidding tiers reflecting different contract structures (no-floor CfD, floored CfD, and LGC-rational). See Renewable Generation.
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Coal forced outage modelling: A new two-category approach models units that are offline at the start of the day separately from running units that experience partial outages. See Thermal Generation.
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Dynamic hydro dispatch: Reservoir hydro output now adjusts dynamically based on residual demand conditions, replacing the previous fixed scaling approach. See Reservoir Hydro.
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Thermal generation improvements: Outage sampling is now filtered to high-capacity-factor plants. See Thermal Generation.
Input data updates
- Coal retirement timeline updates: Eraring (NSW, 2,880 MW) retirement extended to April 2029, Callide B (QLD, 700 MW) set to retire December 2028, and Yallourn West (VIC, 1,450 MW) set to retire September 2028, reflecting the latest announced timelines. See Generation and Storage.
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AEMO REZ profiles: Renewable capacity factors for new builds are now sourced from AEMO Reference Energy Zone generation traces, providing location-specific profiles across all 9 NEM substates. See Renewable Generation.
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Rooftop solar assumptions: Rooftop solar projections have been updated from AEMO ISP Progressive Change to Step Change, reflecting a higher assumed uptake of distributed solar.